Bracing for a Slow-Moving, Self-Inflicted Economic Storm

It is in a president’s interest to ensure that the economy and the stock market are strong. Yet the Trump administration has been doing just the opposite.

The mood in the markets has been upbeat this week, largely because the president and his advisers softened their stances, rolling back some of their threats toward both China and the Federal Reserve. Periods of relative calm like this last one have been a relief, but they haven’t lasted long, for good reasons.

Start with President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on countries around the world, especially his decision to start a trade war with China. Then, consider his repeated verbal attacks on the Fed and its chair, Jerome H. Powell, which have threatened the independence of the central bank.

Add the weakening and wholesale dismantling of a host of important government agencies, the defunding of universities and the open consideration of policies that could dislodge the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds from their place at the center of world finance. There’s plenty more.

Fundamentally, investors and business executives are jittery, and economists have profound concerns about the potential damage being done to the United States as well as countries around the world.

I’ve had an eerie feeling about what we’ve been seeing. It’s like watching a hurricane forming out in the ocean, one that could head right to New York City. Preparing for weather events like this is important. But this slow-moving storm is something different. It is self-inflicted — started by the man in the Oval Office, who has the power to limit the damage, if no longer to avoid it entirely.

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