This too-early mock draft is my best guess — and I do mean guess — at what the first round might look like if the 2025 MLB Draft were held today. It’s based on what I’ve heard from scouts and front-office sources as well as my own understanding of how teams tend to approach their first selections. In a year like this, when even the No. 1 pick is still wide open, this mock draft is about as speculative an exercise as I’ve ever published.
The first selections for the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers all dropped 10 spots because those teams tried too hard to win — I mean, their payrolls were over the second luxury-tax threshold. Their first picks are at 38, 39 and 40, respectively. This mock draft goes through the regular first round, which is 27 picks this season. I don’t have full scouting reports on the players in this piece. For full reports on players, refer to my most recent draft ranking. I will have a full top 100 draft prospect ranking later this month.
Ethan Holliday
The Nationals are still on a wide range of names, at least a half-dozen, including Holliday, the two college lefties Jamie Arnold and Liam Doyle, infielder Aiva Arquette and right-hander Seth Hernandez. This may come down to the best deal they can work out on draft day, given the lack of any clear 1-1 candidate in the class, which would allow them to try to sign another first-round talent among high school players who fall to their second selection (pick 49) because of bonus demands. Other than Hernandez, who has the typical base-rate risk of all high school pitchers, I’d say any of the names they’re considering would be a good pick here.
Liam Doyle
Everyone thinks the Angels will take a college player and attempt to move him quickly to the big leagues, as they did with Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel and seemed set to do with Christian Moore before he had some contact issues in Double A. There’s been more smoke around them taking one of the two college lefties, as both appear likely to be able to throw in the big-league bullpen in the second half of this season, if the Angels wanted them to do so. All that said, they’ve been heavy on Hernandez recently too.
Aiva Arquette
I think the Mariners’ focus is on the big four of Arquette, Arnold, Doyle and Holliday, and they may be less inclined to take Holliday than the others because they’re trying to win now. I’ve heard they want a pitcher, I’ve heard Arquette doesn’t get past them, and clearly both of those things can’t really be true at the same time, right?
Jamie Arnold
I have also heard the Rockies want Arquette, which makes a lot of sense — the modest boost in power he’d get from altitude might turn him into a 30-homer guy — and of course everyone assumes they’ll target pitching. They seem like the highest realistic landing spot for Hernandez or Eli Willits.
Kyson Witherspoon
I’m fairly confident we see at least four college pitchers taken in the top 10. I don’t think the Cardinals would be on any of the high schoolers in this range except Holliday in the unlikely event he got here. I think they’d take the best pitcher available over Arquette here, given who those arms are likely to be.
Seth Hernandez
Pittsburgh has appeared to be heavy on high schoolers this spring, at least relative to the teams ahead of them, including Hernandez and his teammate Billy Carlson, as well as Willits. They also took a high-risk, high-reward prospect in the first round last year in Konnor Griffin, which may mean they’re more inclined to take on the risk of a high school arm.
Eli Willits
Willits could go anywhere from picks 1-7, in theory, although I think this is his floor; I don’t think the Marlins are on Hernandez as heavily as the other names around this range, and if I’m guessing right now (which I am, clearly) I would bet they’d select Carlson over the pitcher Hernandez.
Billy Carlson
The Blue Jays will have a few shortstops staring them in the face, likely Carlson, JoJo Parker, Kayson Cunningham, Marek Houston, Wehiwa Aloy, along with the next tier of college arms like Kade Anderson and Riley Quick. I’m betting their pick comes from one of those two groups.
Kade Anderson
The Reds seem a little more inclined to go college than high school, maybe 55/45 odds, given who is likely to be here. There’s a strong belief that Anderson gets into the top 10, but right now I’m not sure that he could be higher than eight.
JoJo Parker
Parker isn’t Colson Montgomery, but they’re in a similar category — strong athletes who maybe don’t stay at shortstop but are going to stay on the dirt and are hit-first prospects who may come into power. (Please do not look at Montgomery’s stat line from this year.) The White Sox went with a college arm last year in Hagen Smith, but they’re in a much better position than most teams to take a high-ceiling high school guy — or to roll the dice on a player who’s fallen from favor a bit like Jace LaViolette, who came into the year as a candidate to go 1-1.
Jace LaViolette
Speak of the devil — LaViolette hasn’t had the year he needed to justify a top-of-the-draft selection, with too much swing and miss once again and just a .277/.437/.594 line (through Sunday), but the baseline that made him a preseason 1-1 favorite, including plus power and the potential to stay in center, is still there. The A’s tend to play it pretty straight with their first picks, at least since they took Max Muncy 2.0 in 2021. I could also see them with Tyler Bremner, Aloy, Brendan Summerhill or Ike Irish.
Wehiwa Aloy
Aloy fits the profile of what Texas likes in college position players — physical, athletic, maybe a bit unpolished at the plate but with offensive upside. I’ve also heard them on Quick, Xavier Neyens and Daniel Pierce. If someone like Parker, Carlson or Hernandez slides here I would assume Texas just takes him.
Marek Houston
The only two names I’ve specifically heard with the Giants are Houston and Bremner, and I wouldn’t rule out them taking a high school hitter given that they took Bryce Eldridge two years ago (and that’s been a big success).
Gavin Fien
This is pure speculation on my part, and I might be overweighting Fien’s summer/fall showing here, as Fien has struggled at the plate this spring, with scouts wondering if he has “draftitis” (when a guy starts pressing in his draft spring and his performance declines, with mechanics sometimes suffering, as well). He was the best hitter on the high school side on the circuit last year, something the Rays typically value.
Brendan Summerhill
Summerhill is one of the best pure bats in the college ranks, almost certainly a corner outfielder, and lines up with recent high picks by the Red Sox. I think they’re more likely to go high school hitter than college or high school pitcher. I haven’t heard them specifically with Irish but he’d also fit.
Ike Irish
I didn’t lead into this pick by mentioning Irish on purpose. Irish is the best of a modest group of backstops this year, a bat-first guy who has a plus arm and needs work on receiving and blocking. Summerhill or Gavin Kilen would fit here. We’re down into much more speculative territory at this point.
Daniel Pierce
I’m hearing the Cubs much more with high school guys right now, which I don’t know if I entirely believe given the success they’ve had with college first-rounders recently (Cam Smith, Matt Shaw, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks in the last four years). I’ve heard Neyens, Steele Hall … I just don’t quite buy that that’s real.
Slater de Brun
De Brun is a smaller center fielder (listed at 5-foot-10 but 5-8 is more accurate) who can really hit. Like moths to the undersized high school hitter flame, the Diamondbacks may be unable to resist. All joking aside, I have heard them attached to de Brun, as well as with some taller players like Summerhill (maybe just because he’s local, so take that for what it’s worth) and Aloy.
Gavin Kilen
This just seems way too obvious a match — a player with Kilen’s performance and batted-ball data shouldn’t even get this far, and the Orioles typically pounce on guys like that. If they hadn’t just taken center fielders in the first round the last two seasons, I would assume they’d be LaViolette’s floor. I haven’t heard them on pitching at all, and just a little with high school hitters, although they’ve taken a college player with five of six first-round picks under general manager Mike Elias, the exception coming when they picked at No. 1 (Jackson Holliday).
Tyler Bremner
Despite a tough spring where his performance and his fastball quality have both raised questions, Bremner still seems to be getting a lot of first-round attention, likely landing somewhere in the 11-20 range. The Brewers shocked me with the Braylon Payne pick last year — he’s the opposite of what they’ve typically targeted, more athleticism and upside with less present hit tool or power at the time of the draft — but if you think they’ll go that way again, it’d be someone like Hall.
Kayson Cunningham
Early-season buzz that had Cunningham going in the top 10 has cooled off; I’d say scouts like him, but they don’t see him in that upper echelon in a year that is loaded with high school shortstops. I think the Astros are right in range for Quick and Summerhill, as well. One caveat is that they’ve gone for high-performing college bats in the first round of two drafts under general manager Dana Brown.
Steele Hall
This selection is not a specific player-team tie but a general sense from sources that Hall is going somewhere in this range of the draft. Atlanta hasn’t taken a position player in the first round since 2019, and the team is among those most willing to take on the high risk of a high school pitcher. At this spot in the draft that group would include Jack Bauer, Kruz Schoolcraft and Matthew Fisher.
Kruz Schoolcraft
I’ve heard this might be Schoolcraft’s floor. I’d bet on the Royals going the high-school route even after the success of their top pick from last year’s draft, Jac Caglianone (he’s hitting .314/.395/.543 in Double A and playing right field). If they do go high school, the mix would probably include guys like Neyens, Hall, Josh Hammond, all high-upside athletes.
Riley Quick
Quick could help the Tigers this year in a bullpen role if they’re so inclined, and still has long-term upside as a starter.
Xavier Neyens
I’m going out on a limb here and projecting the Padres to take a high school player, someone like Neyens, Hall, Hammond, even a Schoolcraft or Bauer, huge upside plays who are all high-risk because of their age or other factors.
Jack Bauer
I considered putting Bauer with Detroit at No. 24 and he could end up there but this spot is a fit too. The Phillies are among the most risk-tolerant teams in the first round, and scouting director Brian Barber has yet to take a college guy with his first selection.
Charles Davalan
Scouts who’ve gone in to see Aloy and the Razorbacks’ pitching have come away impressed with Davalan, who fits Cleveland’s profile of liking guys who never strike out but at least show the makings of power.
Other names to watch
Some names not listed with teams but who have a realistic chance to get into the first round: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas; Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas; Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana; Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville; Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.); Josh Hammond, 3B/RHP, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC); Dean Curley, SS/3B, Tennessee; and Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State.
(Photo illustration by Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Images (from left to right) Jamie Arnold / Steve Sisney / USA Today Network; Ethan Holliday
/ Angelina Alcantar / News Sentinel / USA Today Network via Imagn Images; Liam Doyle / Steven Branscombe / Imagn Images)
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