Novak Djokovic said he had to face up to his “new reality” after another opening-match loss, this time to world No. 44 Matteo Arnaldi at the Madrid Open.
“Trying to win a match or two, not really thinking about getting far in the tournament,” Djokovic said in a news conference Saturday of his expectations going into events in 2025.
“It’s a completely different feeling from what I had in 20-plus years of professional tennis, so it’s kind of a challenge for me mentally to really face these kinds of sensations on the court, going out early now regularly in the tournament.”
The 6-3, 6-4 loss means Djokovic is 0-2 on clay in 2025, following his straight-sets defeat to Alejandro Tabilo at the same stage of the Monte Carlo Masters in Monaco a couple of weeks ago. Djokovic, the world No. 5, didn’t lose his first match at a tournament once in 2024. He has done so four times in 2025, from his last five events.
It’s a historically bad run of form for Djokovic, and one that he insisted means he can’t be considered one of the favorites for the French Open, which begins in one month and where he is a three-time winner. “I’m not going into Roland Garros as one of the main favorites. Maybe that can help, I don’t know, we’ll see,” Djokovic said in his news conference.
No one has been better at proving claims like that wrong than the record 24-time Grand Slam champion. But Djokovic turns 38 in May, and is more likely than not to be outside the top four seeds in Paris; his path to a fourth Roland Garros title looks more and more of a long shot. Against Arnaldi, a 24-year-old Italian who grew up idolizing him, Djokovic was labored in his movement and his decision-making at key moments and racked up unforced errors — 32 in total — that gave his opponent a helping hand when things got tight.
“At the start, I was just trying not to s— my pants, to be honest,” said Arnaldi, a durable player with a big forehand but whose highest ranking is No. 30, in his on-court interview. He later told reporters that watching so many of Djokovic’s matches had helped him, allowing him to anticipate on a few occasions where his opponent was going to put the ball, especially when Djokovic was searching for consistency.
“He’s not in his best shape and form. He’s still playing good, but he’s a different player,” Arnaldi said.
Djokovic was broken in his first service game, as three errors from 40-30 up handed Arnaldi the early initiative. Djokovic broke back immediately, but despite pushing for another break to take the lead in the opening set, he couldn’t find it. Instead, he again self-destructed when serving down 3-4. Again, he held a game point at 40-30, but a missed backhand down the line preceded consecutive double faults to give Arnaldi a 5-3 lead and a chance to serve for the set, which he took.
That prompted Djokovic’s coach, three-time Grand Slam champion Andy Murray, to tell his player to wait for the right ball before pulling the trigger down the line. It was a shot that was always the bellwether for how confident Murray was feeling, and in Madrid, it betrayed the fact that Djokovic was not seeing the ball well at all. Five games into the second set, Djokovic had lost seven of 13 points in which he had used the shot, five of which were errors.
He struggled with his movement too, looking uncertain on his feet and even stumbled to the floor when Arnaldi hit a wrong-footed forehand to hold for 2-2 in the second set. Arnaldi sensed his opponent was a step slow and frequently drew him forward with drop shots.
That didn’t stop Djokovic from frequently making inroads on his opponent’s serve, but he kept undoing his hard work with uncharacteristic missed returns, especially on the backhand side: mistakes that were once collectors’ items from the greatest returner in the history of the sport. When Djokovic did string a few points together, Arnaldi was able to raise his level, clinging to his serve to hold for 3-3 in the second set.
Arnaldi appeared energised by the escape, speaking animatedly to his box as he prepared to receive. From there, he produced defense that even Djokovic would have been proud of, breaking from 30-30 after a pair of epic rallies. On both occasions, Djokovic looked completely in control of the point, but Arnaldi hung on and drew a missed volley and then one right into his hitting zone to steal the break and open up a path to victory.
Not to be outdone, Djokovic produced some equally extraordinary defense of his own in the next game, forcing a disbelieving Arnaldi to net a forehand in a rally that he thought he’d won on a handful of occasions. Somehow, Arnaldi raised himself again and hit a forehand pass beyond a stunned Djokovic to save a second break point. The third came and went too, and when Arnaldi held from 0-40, he had broken his opponent’s resistance. That was perhaps more revealing than any of the service games Djokovic lost, given how much of his career has been built on breaking opponents’ spirit even when they hold an advantage.
A couple of games later, it was all over, and Arnaldi had his second win against a top-5 opponent. Djokovic smiled gracefully as he walked towards the net, but this is a defeat that will take a while to process. He won just 40 percent of his second serve points; such a clutch player usually, he didn’t save any of the three break points he faced.
“Of course I’m always trying to be optimistic, and I know what I’m capable of,” Djokovic said afterward.
“But again, things are different, obviously, with my strokes, with my body, with my movement, it’s the reality that I have to accept. I’ll try to make the most out of these new circumstances that I have, particularly on Grand Slams, where it counts the most for me, at least where I would like to do my best.”
His legendary ability to peak when it matters means others will be his skeptical about his claim that he is not one of the favorites for Roland Garros. “With Novak you never know — I would wait to see the first rounds of Roland Garros to have a clear answer on that,” said world No. 18 Stefanos Tsitsipas, who Djokovic beat in the 2021 final, during an interview in Madrid.
Arnaldi said that Djokovic had to be one of the tournament favourites, partly because playing him in a best-of-five set match is “completely different”.
Coco Gauff, the world No. 4 and a Roland Garros finalist, told reporters: “He’s the greatest tennis player so I’m always going to put him as a favourite no matter what — especially when it comes to a Slam. Maybe he hasn’t had the best results but we all know he can win out of nowhere — or not out of nowhere but when the circumstances are stacked against him, so I would put him as a favorite.”
Djokovic’s past achievements mean tennis players and pundits find it impossible to write him off, but of late there has been precious little supporting evidence that he can do what he has done so often even one more time.
(Photo: Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)
